Election Betting
Election Betting Guide
Strategies specific to political prediction markets.
Politics is the "Super Bowl" of prediction markets. Here is how to trade it.
1. Ignore the Noise (Twitter)
Social media is an echo chamber. A candidate trending on Twitter does not mean they are winning votes in swing states.
- Strategy: Look at Polling Averages (RealClearPolitics, 538) rather than individual viral tweets.
2. Watch the Swing States
In the US Electoral College, the popular vote doesn't decide the winner. Only a few states matter (PA, WI, MI, AZ, GA).
- Strategy: Don't just bet on "Who will be President?". Look for mispriced arbitrage between "Who will win Pennsylvania?" and the general election market.
3. The "Blue Shift" / "Red Mirage"
Vote counting takes time. Mail-in ballots are often counted last and lean Democratic. In-person votes are counted first and lean Republican.
- Strategy: On election night, if a Republican is leading early, don't panic buy. The "Blue Shift" might catch up later. This volatility is a prime trading opportunity.